Thursday, September 15, 2011

the answer to...

..."What's the most important question?" is often not "How do we answer the obvious?" but rather "In what terms can the problem be most simply addressed?".

In math, this is the challenge of finding the right variable. In science this is the inverse problem of selecting a model given observational data, as distinct from the forward problem of prediction with model in hand.

The forward problem is easier to do and to teach. Moreover ability to solve it has survival value, so it's no surprise that ideologues abound in all walks of life.

As a result we may spend too few neurons implementing (and developing) ways to choose our questions with care. According to Sharon McGrayne's The theory that would not die (Yale University Press, 2011) there is a whole science of model selection for making the most of limited data.

This science, namely Bayesian inference, has a spectacular track-record of practical problem-solving. There is also a long tradition of idealogue disinterest.

Even today methods for idea-selection in a given field oft fall through the cracks of higher ed, in spite of their relevance to everyday life. That's the way things work, so expect it & adapt e.g. with ways to compensate for this tendency.

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