Tuesday, January 12, 2016

no payout gambling

Folks buy a lottery ticket for a chance at a prize. If no prize is awarded, regardless of whether or not the prize money is used to sell additional tickets for a future contest award, isn't that false advertising?

How is it legal for folks to sell tickets on prize money they plan not to award, so that they can sell tickets on it again next week? Not awarding of course increases the profit margin of those selling the tickets, but what does it do to the odds that the ticket you bought will pay off?

The standard approach is to fix the odds of winning at much less than one out of the number of entries. This has the added advantage that sequential "failures to award" can bump the prize money for a new entry up, creating interest in the game. The fact that it's a bad investment is old news, while a billion dollar pot is today's news.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

neolithic media

New media sometimes elicits inappropriate neolithic responses, like fear and xenophobia, from crowds first exposed to it. A classic contemporary example of course is the role of radio in 1930's Germany.

Did development of the printing press play a role in religious intolerance on or around the Renniasance in Europe? More importantly, is the internet playing a similar role in the emergence of "conservative" extremism across the globe today?